The Probability of Having Multiple Children with Autism in One Family

by Kellie Smith

Submitted : Spring 2018

The purpose of this project was to determine the probability of having multiple children who will fall on the autism spectrum either noticed at birth or as the child becomes a toddler. This was done by first finding the probability of having one child with autism, then what the probability of the second child having autism would be given that the first child has autism, then using these two probabilities to discover what the chances are of both children having autism would be. It was found that the probability of having a second child with this diagnosis, knowing that the first child had autism, was higher than just having one child diagnosed. Having two children with autism yielded a lower probability than expected, averaging at .0364% probability. But, this low probability still shows that there is a chance of having multiple children who will be diagnosed with autism, and parents who already have one child with autism should know that they still have a higher chance of having another child with this diagnosis than those who have yet to have their first kid. 

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