Medicine >> OtherA Mathematical Model for Pertussis Transmission Rate in Floridaby Burak Oktenli
Submitted : Fall 2017 Historically, Florida has had low pertussis incidence rates compared with other states. Interestingly, since 2012, a sharp increase occurred in pertussis incidence rates in Florida. Our main aim was to increase awareness against the possible future pertussis outbreaks. In 2016, the number of pertussis patients was 339. We took this number as the initial size of the infected population. Then, for the sake of simplicity, we assumed that the full recovery rate is zero. The transmission rate of pertussis is a combination of linear and an exponential function of time, in one model and a combination of a linear function and a power function of time, in other. The pertussis exhibits an exponential spreading pattern. We estimated that the number of infected people will be respectively about 746 and 801 in 24th month. Our next aim is to estimate how long it will take for the infected population will reach the size of 2000 people. If the current pertussis vaccines do not work as intended or advertised, the infected population will reach the size of 2000 people in the 47th an 48tth months respectively for the two models. We also found that the number of patients between the 12th and 48th months will be about 1620 and 1485 respectively for the two different models. Finally, we wonder the time when the graphs of the two mathematical models intersect each other, in other words, when do the two model functions gives the same result. We have proved that the two models which give different but near values in months, give exactly the same result. Consequently, further estimating with mathematical modelling of pertussis transmission rates in Florida give us to predict future outbreaks or identification of an emerging epidemiologic trend. Related Links:
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