Herpes Simplex Virus 1 and Alzheimer's Disease: Mathematically Modeling Disease Prevalence in Simula

by Kristin Daniels

Submitted : Spring 2012

Mathematically modeling research data is the key to understanding the results of research studies. However, not all modeling methods are equally effective or fully descriptive. To demonstrate these discrepancies between modeling methods I examine a research hypothesis, compile the results from three simulated but realistic populations, and apply different modeling methods in order to see how the choice of methods distorts or clarifies the results. Research has shown a possible connection between Herpes Simplex 1 infection and the development of Alzheimer's Disease. I examine the hypothesis that the rates of HSV-1 are a causative factor in the rates of AD. I provide statistical analysis of three hypothetical populations from three different regions to show that the rates of HSV-1 and AD are not evenly distributed. One would think that if HSV-1 is a causative factor in AD then the regions with the lowest rates of AD would have the lowest rates of HSV-1. Conversely, the regions with the highest rates of AD would have the highest rates of HSV-1. I provide statistical analysis that shows the opposite to be the case. However, an interesting observation can be made from the data analysis. It appears that the regions with the highest rates of HSV-1 have the lowest rates of AD while the regions with the lowest rates of HSV-1 have the highest rates of AD.

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