Investigating COVID 19 EPIDEMIC

by Oluwasegun Olowe

Submitted : Spring 2020

Covid-19 is a pandemic disease that arises from a mutation of the SARS coronavirus family. It currently poses a global grave danger due to its high transmission and mortality rates epidemiologically and likelihood of consequential global economic recession. Since the outbreak of the virus in China and its fast spread across the globe, the United States has taken several necessary measures to control both the prevalence and mortality indices of the disease within the United States such as social distancing lockdown of the population, which will impact significantly on the economic state of the country. As a result of the consequential economic downturn from the Covid-19 outbreak, which predictively likely of long term, the President of the United States in his policy and priority move, to salvage the economy has proposed and more than eager to reopen the country back to normal economic activities from the current lockdown impasse. This study is to show that both the prevalence and mortality rates of Covid-19 disease will continue to increase with further predictive deep and worsened economic recession if the President reopen the country too prematurely.  A SIR model is utilized in this study to make the prediction and interpretation of likely increasing incidence and prevalence of the Covid-19 judging by its current epidemiological infectivity and transmission rate.

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