Accuracy of the Lotka-Volterra Model

by Kaleb Bartlin

Submitted : Fall 2019

In biology, the relationship between a predator and prey is extremely important when trying to track populations. In the early 1900's a model was proposed after a study between the snowshoe hare and it's predator, the Canadian lynx was run. This model was dubbed the Lotka-Volterra model named after Alfred J. Lotka and later Vito Volterra who ran a similar study with fish. This nonlinear differential equation became the foundation for biologist who wanted to predict the effect that a predator would have on its prey and vice versa. The problem with the equation is that it only works when there are no outside forces. The equation doesn't compute in most abiotic factors (competition, disease, ect). So a simulation was run and compared to the real life numbers of a population of grey wolves and elk that live in the northern part of Yellowstone National Park.

            From the data, it could be concluded that the data was precise in measuring similar outcomes, but not accurate, with high percent errors when compared to the actual population size. Because of this, the model should be edited to take in other factors instead of just relying on the justification of four pre-determined assumptions.

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