Future Global Population Growth Estimation Using the Logistic Equation

by Wei Chen

Submitted : Spring 2018

Overpopulation is a transnational issue requiring countries to work together and create viable options towards the sustainable usage of natural resources. As the global population grows in the billions, long-term decisions that equally distribute basic necessities, such as water, must be planned. However, quantitative estimates of time must be made to ensure the said decisions will effectively serve future generations. Using the analytic solution of the logistic equation, a mathematical model was formulated to predict how many years it would take for the world population to be 9 billion, a realistic carrying capacity proposed by scientists (LiveScience). Applying contemporary trends in population growth to the model, it was estimated that it will take 25 years for the world population to reach 9 billion. Though the calculated time is not 100% accurate towards future population trends, it will provide countries with an estimated time limit and allow them to formulate polices that limit the domestic consumption of water/specific foods.

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