Estimation of Population Size Using the Mark-Recapture Method

by Sarafina Musto

Submitted : Fall 2014

In this investigation, the population of mosquitoes in a given area is estimated using the Mark-Recapture Method in order to update the information regarding the control of mosquito-borne pathogens. Mathematical equations are used in order to calculate an estimate of the population, the probability of finding a given amount of marked mosquitoes through recapture, and also a maximum likelihood estimate of the population given the data. The estimate of the mosquito population was found to be 100, and this was confirmed to be a maximum likelihood estimate. Additionally, the probability of finding 40 marked mosquitoes in a sample of 80 mosquitoes in an area with a population of 100 mosquitoes was found to be 1.05 x 10^-9. Using the methods employed in this investigation, scientists may take action in order to prevent mosquito-borne pathogens in any given area. 

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