Probability Applied to Hydrology

by Joseph Pellegrino

Submitted : Spring 2009

This project is about taking probability and applying to flood hydrology. By applying calculus we will be about to figure out how intense a flood can occur within a given time frame. Also be able to figure out the probability of a flood event to occur. By figuring out the probability of when a flood is going to occur and how intense it is going be you have to use different methods. The formulas that were used in this project were probability formulas to figure out for example how intense a 10-year flood would be. Through given data you are able to find the mean and the standard deviation. You need a table of frequency factors of normal distributions to find out the K-factor, which is the last number that is needed for the problem. I used the normal distribution method to get to a formula that would work to have the three factors to compute the intense of a flood. In order to compute all this information there needs to be given data that can provide numbers to make this all happen. There are many different ways to figure the probability of flood events and there are some that are very simple. I will describe and show provided steps on how to use calculus to determine the probability of floods. After going through the process and all the steps I was able to use an example to figure the probability of a flood event in a certain area. I was able to get data from the Sitnica River Shed. I used this data to compute how intense a 10 year flood could be and also the probability that this event could happen. This method was very effective in finding this information to be accurate. To estimate data like this hydrologists make graphs to as a quick and easy way to get this information.

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