Recurrence Interval Analysis

by Kaylee Rushing

 

Submitted : Spring 2020

 

Using data provided by the USGS, recurrence intervals were calculated for earthquakes of magnitude higher than 5.5 in the California area. Each earthquake was ranked based on magnitude from 1-13, with 1 being the highest magnitude and 13 being the lowest. The rankings were then converted into recurrence intervals using the provided equation. From there, the probability of another event of similar magnitude occurring was calculated using binomial distribution. Based on the outcome of this data, it can be interpreted that an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.7 has the highest chance of

recurrence in the next ten years with a probability of 0.38.

 

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