Assessing Climate Change Probability Using Calculus

by Mitchell Moure

Submitted : Fall 2017

Using predictive climate data, I set out to find the probability of the atmospheric content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reaching 500 parts per million at two different intervals, 10 years before and after the mean estimate of the model. Using a continuous random variable and exponential functions, probability was calculated for both intervals. The study found that CO₂ emissions were almost twice as likely to pass 500 parts per million 10 years ahead of the predicted year than 10 years after the predicted year. This report showed the predictive process of exponential random variables and the reinforced the necessity for changes in methods of energy consumption around the world.

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