Using Calculus to Model the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in West Africa

by Rachel Pinkston

Submitted : Fall 2014

The 2014 Ebola Virus Disease epidemic was chosen as the focus of this research paper because it is of significance to the fields of mathematics and medicine. The 2014 Ebola Virus Disease epidemic in West Africa now stands as the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded and threatens not only the health of millions but also civil institutions worldwide [10]. Mathematical models provide a framework for the characterization and the quantification of ecological processes including outbreaks of infectious diseases like the Ebola virus disease afflicting West Africa [8]. This paper will analyze a calculus-based epidemic model known as the Incidence Decay with Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model to describe the 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus disease [2]. The objective of this paper is to determine whether the IDEA model can be used to quantitatively describe patterns of epidemic growth to project the duration and size of the 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak. According to the projections from the IDEA model a peak in the Ebola epidemic of West Africa would not occur until April 2015 with a final size greater than 140,000 cases [10]. With no proven treatment available there is a possibility that the Ebola virus disease will become endemic among the population of West Africa [3].

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